With Nintendo Switch 2 Waiting in the Wings, Sales of the Original Switch and Its Games Continue to Tumble

Nintendo's hardware sales forecast has been revised downward again, with Switch console and game sales falling "below expectations." For the first nine months of the fiscal year, dedicated game console sales dropped 31.7% year-over-year to 895.5 billion yen (approximately $5.7 billion), due to decreased sales of both the Switch and its software. Mobile and IP-related income also declined by 33.9% year-over-year to 49.7 billion yen (approximately $320 million), largely attributed to the tough comparison with 2023's highly successful The Super Mario Bros. Movie. This resulted in a 27.3% year-over-year decrease in gross profit to 565.5 billion yen (approximately $3.6 billion).

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Nintendo has again lowered its financial forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2025, for the second consecutive time. The projected Switch hardware sales have been reduced by 1.5 million units to 11 million, and software sales by 10 million to 150 million.

While sales declines were anticipated for the eight-year-old Switch, the magnitude exceeded Nintendo's projections. Nevertheless, the Switch has achieved remarkable success, surpassing 150 million units sold. While overtaking the PlayStation 2's 160 million sales may be unlikely, surpassing the Nintendo DS's 154 million sales remains a possibility.

Nintendo characterized Switch and software sales in Q3 2024 (ending December 31, 2024) as "stable considering the platform's age." Overall Switch family sales were down 30.6% year-over-year at 9.54 million units, and software sales decreased by 24.4% year-over-year to 123.98 million units. However, strong sales were noted for The Legend of Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom (3.91 million), Super Mario Party Jamboree (6.17 million), Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (5.38 million), and Nintendo Switch Sports (2.63 million) during the quarter. Mario & Luigi: Brothership reached 1.4 million sales.

Super Mario Party Jamboree stands out as a significant success, outpacing previous Mario Party titles on the Switch within its first 11 weeks of release (October 17, 2024).

Crucially, active Switch users reached a record high of 129 million annual players in 2024, indicating continued engagement despite the console's age. Nintendo highlighted that Switch sales in some holiday weeks even exceeded those of the previous year.

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Given the financial report, investors eagerly await the Switch 2's release. Nintendo announced upcoming Switch titles: Xenoblade Chronicles X: Definitive Edition (March 20 release), and Pokémon Legends: Z-A and Metroid Prime 4: Beyond (scheduled for 2025). The company reaffirmed the Switch 2's 2025 release date and plans a dedicated Direct presentation on April 2nd, along with global hands-on events.