Nintendo has unveiled a cautiously optimistic sales forecast for its upcoming Switch 2 console, with analysts describing the projection as "conservative" in light of ongoing global tariff uncertainties. During its latest financial report, Nintendo announced an expected sale of 15 million units of the Switch 2 and 45 million game copies during the current fiscal year ending March 31, 2026. The highly anticipated Switch 2 is set to launch globally on June 5.
The company noted that its forecast assumes the U.S. tariff rates introduced on April 10 remain unchanged throughout the fiscal period. However, it acknowledged that potential adjustments to these tariffs could impact its projections. “We will continue to monitor the situation to respond to changes in market conditions,” Nintendo stated in its official report.
Daniel Ahmad, Director of Research & Insights at Niko Partners, described the 15 million unit target as a conservative estimate. He commented via Twitter that Nintendo was likely factoring in the unpredictable nature of tariffs, pricing strategy, and production challenges—despite strong early pre-order momentum.
Ahmad further suggested that if the tariff situation improves or reverses, Nintendo may feel confident enough to raise its forecast later in the year. “However, the main issue right now is the knock-on effects already in motion, creating a difficult environment for a console launch. Not to mention the looming threat of increased tariffs,” he added.
It’s worth noting that if the Switch 2 reaches the 15 million unit milestone within its first year, it would be one of the most successful console launches in history—surpassing even the original Switch’s impressive first-year total of 14.87 million units sold.
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Consumer demand for the Switch 2 appears to be extremely high. Following a brief delay attributed to tariff-related logistics, pre-orders officially launched on April 24, with the console priced at $449.99. As expected, interest surged almost immediately after availability opened. Additionally, Nintendo issued a notice to U.S. customers who pre-ordered through the My Nintendo Store, stating that delivery by launch date cannot be guaranteed due to overwhelming demand.
For more information on how to secure your Switch 2 before launch, check out IGN's Nintendo Switch 2 pre-order guide.
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